See the Score for Rays vs Blue Jays Game – September 28th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

On September 28, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre in a crucial American League East matchup. The Blue Jays are coming off a strong season, boasting a record of 93-68, while the Rays are struggling at 77-84. Yesterday, the Blue Jays secured a victory over the Rays, which adds to the pressure on Tampa Bay as they look to salvage their season.

Toronto is projected to start Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid year despite a Win/Loss record of 10-11. His ERA stands at 3.47, indicating he has been effective on the mound. Gausman’s projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.8 batters. However, he has struggled with allowing hits, projecting to give up 5.3 per game, and walks (1.4), which could be problematic against a Rays offense ranked 4th least in MLB in walks.

Ian Seymour will take the mound for Tampa Bay. The lefty has been impressive with a 2.85 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 4-2 this season. Yet, projections indicate he may not be as fortunate moving forward, as his xFIP of 3.91 suggests he could face challenges in the coming games. He’s expected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.0 batters, which is below average.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 4th best in MLB, led by a potent batting average of .285, while the Rays sit at 14th. The projections favor the Blue Jays with a high implied team total of 4.32 runs, while the Rays have a low total of 3.18 runs. With the Blue Jays’ potent offense facing a pitcher who may be due for regression, they appear to be in a favorable position to continue their winning ways.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Ian Seymour is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Toronto’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Jake Mangum, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.1% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 89 of their last 159 games (+18.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 73 away games (+9.05 Units / 10% ROI)