See the Score for Rays vs Blue Jays Game – September 28th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

On September 28, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre in a crucial American League East matchup. The Blue Jays are coming off a strong season, boasting a record of 93-68, while the Rays are struggling at 77-84. Yesterday, the Blue Jays secured a victory over the Rays, which adds to the pressure on Tampa Bay as they look to salvage their season.

Toronto is projected to start Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid year despite a Win/Loss record of 10-11. His ERA stands at 3.47, indicating he has been effective on the mound. Gausman’s projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.8 batters. However, he has struggled with allowing hits, projecting to give up 5.3 per game, and walks (1.4), which could be problematic against a Rays offense ranked 4th least in MLB in walks.

Ian Seymour will take the mound for Tampa Bay. The lefty has been impressive with a 2.85 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 4-2 this season. Yet, projections indicate he may not be as fortunate moving forward, as his xFIP of 3.91 suggests he could face challenges in the coming games. He’s expected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.0 batters, which is below average.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 4th best in MLB, led by a potent batting average of .285, while the Rays sit at 14th. The projections favor the Blue Jays with a high implied team total of 4.32 runs, while the Rays have a low total of 3.18 runs. With the Blue Jays’ potent offense facing a pitcher who may be due for regression, they appear to be in a favorable position to continue their winning ways.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ian Seymour – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ian Seymour is projected to throw 83 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Toronto’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Jake Mangum, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carson Williams, Bob Seymour, Tristan Gray).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Kevin Gausman will be at an advantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected offense of the opposite hand in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 89 of their last 159 games (+18.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 73 away games (+9.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+230/-315)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+7.25 Units / 181% ROI)