See the Score for Nationals vs Cardinals Game – July 28th, 2024

Washington Nationals

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals will face off on July 28, 2024, at Busch Stadium in the third game of their series. The Cardinals, with a 53-50 record, are having an average season and sit in the middle of the National League standings. Meanwhile, the Nationals are struggling with a 48-56 record, reflecting a below-average season.

Miles Mikolas is set to start for the Cardinals. Mikolas has had a rough year, going 8-8 with a 5.02 ERA, ranking him as the #168 starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and might be due for better performances. Despite a low strikeout rate (16.4 K%), Mikolas will look to capitalize on an inconsistent Nationals offense, ranked 26th in MLB. The Nationals’ offense does boast the 3rd most stolen bases, but they rank 29th in home runs, posing a significant challenge in generating power.

On the mound for the Nationals is DJ Herz, who has a 1-4 record and a 4.95 ERA over eight starts. Herz’s 3.62 xFIP indicates he’s also been unlucky and could improve. However, his projections aren’t favorable; he’s expected to allow 2.5 earned runs and pitch only 4.4 innings on average. Herz faces a Cardinals offense that ranks 19th overall but has shown average capabilities in batting average and home runs.

Michael Siani has been a recent bright spot for the Cardinals, hitting .444 with a 1.056 OPS over the last week. Juan Yepez has led the Nationals, recording a .368 average and 1.034 OPS in the same period.

Both bullpens will play crucial roles. The Cardinals’ bullpen ranks 3rd best, while the Nationals’ bullpen struggles at 29th. This disparity could prove decisive, particularly in a high-total game projected at 9.0 runs.

The Cardinals are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting an implied win probability of 58%. Given the Nationals’ struggles and the Cardinals’ stronger bullpen, St. Louis holds a promising edge in this matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  In his previous game started, DJ Herz performed well and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Yepez has been lucky this year, putting up a .438 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .131 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)
  Miles Mikolas is projected to average 17.7 outs in today’s outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Lars Nootbaar has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 104 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 27% ROI)