Seattle Mariners
Baltimore Orioles
(-115/-105)+110
As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Seattle Mariners on August 14, 2025, both teams come into the matchup with contrasting seasons. The Orioles currently sit at 54-66, struggling to find their footing, while the Mariners boast a solid 67-54 record, showcasing their potential for a postseason berth. This game marks the third in their series, and the Mariners are coming off a recent victory against the Orioles, adding pressure on Baltimore to bounce back.
The pitching matchup features Tomoyuki Sugano for the Orioles and Logan Evans for the Mariners. Sugano, despite having a Win/Loss record of 9-5, has been less effective than his numbers suggest, with an xERA of 5.71 indicating he might be due for some regression. He projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing around 3.4 earned runs, which could be problematic given the Mariners’ potent offense, ranking 12th in MLB. Meanwhile, Logan Evans, with an average ERA of 4.36, is also expected to struggle, projected to pitch just 4.7 innings and yielding 3.0 earned runs.
Offensively, the Mariners hold an edge, ranking 4th in the league in home runs and 3rd in stolen bases, while the Orioles languish at 22nd and 23rd in batting average and overall offensive ranking. The projections favor a higher run total for the Mariners, with an implied team total of 4.97 runs, compared to Baltimore’s 4.53. This disparity underscores the challenges the Orioles face, particularly against a Mariners lineup that has been productive and explosive in recent outings.
With the Game Total set at 9.5 runs, expectations are high for an offensive showcase, particularly from the Mariners. The Orioles will need to make a statement at Oriole Park at Camden Yards to not only salvage the series but also to reinvigorate their struggling season.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)The Baltimore Orioles have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Logan Evans in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (32.0) suggests that Eugenio Suarez has had some very good luck this year with his 46.2 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Tomoyuki Sugano wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his last start and posted 1 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Ryan Noda – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Ryan Noda has strong power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (34.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Logan Evans struggles to strike batters out (1st percentile K%) — great news for Noda.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- The Baltimore Orioles (24.9% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-most strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.