See the Score for Astros vs Mariners Game – April 7th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Seattle Mariners

On April 7, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park in the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with Seattle sitting at 3-7 and Houston at 4-5. The Mariners are currently ranked 33rd in team offense, while the Astros aren’t faring much better, ranked 49th. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs indicates expectations for a low-scoring affair.

Logan Gilbert, projected to start for Seattle, is the 28th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, showcasing his potential despite a 0-1 record this season and an impressive 3.00 ERA. His performance suggests he’s been unlucky, as his 0.99 xFIP indicates he could be poised for a breakout. His last start was uneventful, going 5 innings with 3 earned runs, but he struck out 10 batters, showing he has the ability to dominate.

In contrast, Houston will send Hayden Wesneski to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 5.40 ERA and a high walk rate of 14.3%. Wesneski’s control issues could be a significant advantage for Seattle, a patient team that ranks 2nd in walks drawn. He projects to pitch just 4.8 innings today, which could lead to a heavy workload for the Astros’ bullpen, ranked 17th in the league.

In their last games, the Mariners narrowly lost 5-4 to the Texas Rangers, while the Astros managed a 9-7 victory over the New York Yankees. Given the Mariners’ favorable matchup against a struggling Wesneski and their home-field advantage, they present a compelling case to outperform their current betting line of -160, implying they can turn their season around starting today.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hayden Wesneski – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Hayden Wesneski’s fastball spin rate of 2129 rpm grades out in the 21st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston Astros hitters jointly place 27th- in the league for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a big advantage over flyball hitters, Logan Gilbert and his 43.2% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in this matchup going up against 3 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+11.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 149 games (+18.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 63% ROI)