Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
(-120/+100)-165
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Houston Astros on April 7, 2025, the stakes remain high despite both teams struggling early this season. The Mariners sit at 3-7, while the Astros are slightly better at 4-5, leading to both teams vying for a much-needed win in this American League West matchup. Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, ranked as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, is projected to start, while Houston counters with the average Hayden Wesneski.
In their last outing, the Mariners fell short against the Astros, but Gilbert’s strong peripherals—such as a stellar 3.00 ERA and an impressive 0.97 xFIP—suggest that he has been unfortunate this season and could turn things around today. His projected performance includes 6.2 innings pitched with an average of only 2.1 earned runs allowed, which could pose a significant challenge for a Houston lineup that currently ranks as the 57th best offense in MLB.
On the other side, Wesneski is looking to improve after struggling in his first start, where he recorded a 5.40 ERA. The Mariners, despite their offensive struggles—ranking 37th in MLB—have shown patience at the plate, sitting 2nd in the league for walks. This could play to their advantage against a pitcher like Wesneski, who has a 14.3% walk rate.
With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this contest is projected to be tight. The Mariners are favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting a 60% implied win probability. As the series opener, this game is crucial for both teams to gain momentum and solidify their standing in a competitive division.
Houston Astros Insights
- Hayden Wesneski – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Out of all starting pitchers, Hayden Wesneski’s fastball spin rate of 2129 rpm grades out in the 21st percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Typically, batters like Brendan Rodgers who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Logan Gilbert.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Houston Astros hitters jointly place 27th- in the league for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Given that flyball pitchers hold a big advantage over flyball hitters, Logan Gilbert and his 43.2% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in this matchup going up against 3 opposing FB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)Luke Raley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+11.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 149 games (+18.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.90 Units / 28% ROI)