See the Score for Angels vs Cubs Game – 05 July 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Los Angeles Angels at Wrigley Field on July 5, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Cubs sitting at 40-48 and the Angels at 36-50. However, the Cubs find themselves as big favorites, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%.

On the mound for the Cubs will be left-hander Justin Steele, who ranks as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a winless 0-3 record, Steele boasts a stellar 3.20 ERA over 12 starts. His recent form has been solid, pitching six innings with three earned runs in his last start on June 29. Steele’s projections for today are average, with 5.7 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs, and 5.7 strikeouts, but his overall season performance makes him a strong candidate to keep the Angels’ offense at bay.

The Angels counter with right-hander Griffin Canning, who has had a rough season with a 3-8 record and a 4.71 ERA. His peripheral stats suggest he’s been lucky, with a 5.25 FIP indicating potential regression. Canning’s projections are less favorable, with only 4.8 innings pitched and 3.7 earned runs expected. His low strikeout rate (15.6 K%) could be a disadvantage against a high-strikeout Cubs offense, but it might also work in his favor if he can capitalize on their weakness.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 22nd in MLB, struggling in batting average (24th) and home runs (21st) but excelling in stolen bases (8th). Ian Happ has been their standout performer, particularly over the last week, hitting .389 with three home runs and a 1.577 OPS. Meanwhile, the Angels’ offense is more balanced, ranking 16th overall. Taylor Ward has been their best hitter this season, and Logan O’Hoppe has been hot recently, hitting .438 over the last week.

The Cubs’ bullpen, ranked 15th, presents a stark contrast to the Angels’ bullpen, which ranks last in MLB. This disparity could be crucial in a game where both teams are expected to put up runs. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, reflecting the high-scoring potential.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 65% chance of winning, aligning closely with the betting odds. With Steele’s strong season and the Angels’ bullpen struggles, the Cubs seem poised to take the first game of this series.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Griffin Canning’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1-mph drop off from last season’s 94-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  By putting up a .358 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Taylor Ward grades out in the 92nd percentile for hitting ability.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+130)
  Recording 17.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Justin Steele ranks in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+14.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)
  Jo Adell has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+9.20 Units / 54% ROI)