See the Odds and Betting Tips for Marlins vs Nationals – September 13th, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 13, 2024, both teams are firmly entrenched in disappointing seasons, with records of 65-81 and 55-92, respectively. The Nationals, currently 4th in the National League East, are looking to build off their recent momentum after a solid outing from their bullpen in yesterday’s game, though they ultimately fell short against the Marlins.

On the mound, the Nationals are set to start DJ Herz, a left-handed pitcher who has had a challenging year with a 3-7 record and a 3.82 ERA. However, Herz’s 3.27 xERA indicates he may have been a bit unlucky this season, suggesting he could be poised for a better performance. He is projected to pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing 1.9 earned runs, which is encouraging given the Marlins’ offensive struggles. Miami has ranked as the 29th best offense in MLB, showcasing a lack of power with only 133 home runs this year.

Edward Cabrera, the Marlins’ right-handed starter, has also had his share of difficulties, with a 4-6 record and a 4.88 ERA. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs. Cabrera’s average performance may not be enough to exploit the Nationals’ offense, which, while ranking 22nd overall, holds a respectable 14th place in batting average.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Nationals are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a higher implied team total of 4.60 runs. Given the matchup dynamics, particularly DJ Herz’s ability to limit power against a weak Marlins lineup, the Nationals could capitalize on their home-field advantage to secure a much-needed victory.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Edward Cabrera’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (63.8% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Otto Lopez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  In his previous game started, DJ Herz was firing on all cylinders and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Gallo stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Joey Gallo pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 81 of their last 145 games (+6.48 Units / 3% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+13.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
  Connor Norby has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 games (+18.10 Units / 106% ROI)