See the Odds and Betting Tips for Athletics vs Astros – September 11th, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Oakland Athletics on September 11, 2024, in a pivotal matchup for both teams. The Astros, currently holding a record of 77-67, are in the midst of a solid season and are looking to bounce back after a narrow 4-3 loss to the Athletics yesterday. Meanwhile, the Athletics, sitting at 63-82, are struggling this year but managed to clinch a win in their last outing against Houston, marking a rare highlight in a challenging season.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Hunter Brown, who has been solid this year with an 11-7 record and a fantastic ERA of 3.41. Brown is currently ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his ability to perform at a high level. In his last start, he pitched six innings without allowing an earned run, striking out six batters. His high groundball rate of 48% could be beneficial against an Athletics offense that, while powerful (5th in MLB with 182 home runs), relies heavily on home runs rather than consistent contact.

Joey Estes will take the mound for the Athletics. With a 6-7 record and an ERA of 4.46, Estes has struggled this season and ranks among the worst pitchers in the league. His low strikeout rate of 18.7% may hinder his effectiveness against an Astros lineup that ranks 2nd in batting average and has been difficult to strike out.

The Astros are favored heavily in this matchup, with projections indicating they could score around 5.08 runs, while the Athletics may struggle to reach 3.74 runs. With their strong offensive capabilities and Brown’s recent form, the Astros are expected to come out on top in this series.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Joey Estes ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jon Singleton hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 84 games (+15.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (+100)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 43 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)