See the Brewers vs Pirates Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Thursday May 22nd, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On May 22, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers for the first game of their series at PNC Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 17-33 and the Brewers at 24-26. In their most recent outings, the Pirates secured a 3-1 victory over their opponents, while the Brewers faced an 8-4 defeat, further highlighting their ongoing struggles.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Michael Burrows for the Pirates and Aaron Civale for the Brewers. Burrows, ranked as the 147th best starter in MLB according to advanced stats, has shown inconsistency this year, projecting to throw an average of only 4.7 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. On the other hand, Civale has had a disastrous season so far, with an ERA of 15.00 and a lackluster 0-1 record. His last start on March 30 saw him surrender five earned runs in just three innings.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 29th in MLB in overall performance, batting average, and home runs, which combines for a very poor showing at the plate. Conversely, the Brewers are not much better, sitting 25th overall. However, the Pirates do rank 5th in stolen bases, suggesting an ability to create havoc on the basepaths even with limited power.

Betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Pirates having a slightly higher moneyline at -105, implying they can capitalize on their recent momentum. Civale’s high-flyball tendencies may favor the Pirates, given their struggles with power this season. As the game total sits at 9.0 runs, expect a competitive matchup, but the Pirates might just edge out the Brewers given the current dynamics.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Isaac Collins has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.8-mph dropping to 34-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Aaron Civale.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)