See Picks and Betting Line for Rays vs Angels – Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 5, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup between two teams struggling to gain traction this season. With records of 55-58 and 55-59, respectively, both teams find themselves in a tight race for relevance, but neither is currently contending for a playoff spot. In their last encounter, the Angels triumphed over the Rays with a 5-1 victory, marking a significant win that has implications for both teams as they look to build momentum.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start Jose Soriano, who has had a solid season overall. Ranked as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Soriano’s ERA stands at 3.65, and he has shown the ability to limit earned runs, projecting to allow just 2.2 earned runs today. However, he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.0 per outing, which could be a concern against a Rays offense that ranks 16th in MLB.

In contrast, Ryan Pepiot of the Rays comes into this game after a rough outing, allowing 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last start. His ERA of 3.80 is respectable, but his 4.59 FIP suggests he has been riding his luck this season. Pepiot’s high flyball rate (37 FB%) could play right into the hands of the Angels, who rank 5th in MLB for home runs.

While the Angels’ offense has been underwhelming overall, ranking 21st in MLB, their power potential remains a threat, especially against a pitcher like Pepiot. The projections indicate that the Angels, with a moneyline of -125 and an implied team total of 4.14 runs, are favored to win, suggesting they might capitalize on Pepiot’s vulnerabilities. With the stakes high and both teams looking to assert themselves, this matchup promises to be a compelling watch for fans and bettors alike.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Ryan Pepiot’s four-seam fastball rate has dropped by 7.3% from last season to this one (50.7% to 43.4%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Jose Soriano’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (96.5 mph) below where it was last season (97.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Logan O’Hoppe has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year’s 94.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 13th-best hitter in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 85 games (+14.77 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+16.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Jo Adell has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)