Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-260
On September 2, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Cleveland Guardians at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. The Red Sox currently hold a solid 77-62 record and are in good form, having recently defeated the Guardians 6-4. Meanwhile, Cleveland sits at a mediocre 68-68, struggling to find consistency.
The matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox and Slade Cecconi for the Guardians. Crochet, projected as the #4 best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts an impressive 14-5 record and a stellar 2.40 ERA this season. In his last start, he went 6 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs while striking out 7 batters. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings today, allowing just 2 earned runs, which positions him as a significant threat to the Guardians’ lineup.
Conversely, Slade Cecconi has had a lackluster season with a 5-6 record and a 4.41 ERA. The projections indicate he will pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing around 2.9 earned runs. With the Red Sox offense ranking as the 7th best in MLB, they should be able to capitalize on Cecconi’s vulnerabilities.
Adding to the Red Sox’s advantage, their offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 6th in batting average and maintaining a strong 4.57 implied team total for today’s game. In contrast, the Guardians’ offense ranks last in MLB, making their task significantly tougher against an elite pitcher like Crochet. As a result, this game presents a favorable outlook for the Red Sox, who are heavily favored to win.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+220)The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jhonkensy Noel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jhonkensy Noel’s true offensive talent to be a .288, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .125 disparity between that figure and his actual .163 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Cleveland’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #30 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Compared to league average, Garrett Crochet has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 8.5 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Alex Bregman has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-260)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 57 games (+13.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 133 games (+11.09 Units / 7% ROI)
- Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)