See Picks and Betting Line for Guardians vs Brewers – Friday, August 16, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cleveland Guardians on August 16, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Brewers sit at 69-52, showing promise this season, while the Guardians hold a slightly better record at 72-49, marking them as a team to watch. This matchup is particularly intriguing given the Guardians’ recent performance; they won decisively against the Chicago Cubs, 6-1, and have been enjoying a solid run.

The Brewers are projected to start Aaron Civale, who has had a rough season with a 3-8 record and an ERA of 5.02. However, Civale showed signs of improvement in his last outing on August 9, where he pitched six innings allowing just two earned runs. In contrast, the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, a more promising option with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.38. Williams also pitched well in his last start, going six innings with only one earned run allowed.

The Brewers’ offense ranks 9th in MLB and boasts the 5th best team batting average, suggesting they can put runs on the board. Their recent offensive output has been bolstered by Willy Adames, who has been particularly effective this season. On the other hand, the Guardians’ offense is average overall, ranked 15th, but they do have strong contributors like Jose Ramirez, who has 31 home runs this season.

The projections favor the Guardians slightly, suggesting they could score around 4.49 runs, compared to the Brewers’ projected 4.13 runs. With both teams vying for a crucial win, this game promises to be a competitive and pivotal matchup in the ongoing season.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Gavin Williams has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 7.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Bo Naylor has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Aaron Civale’s cut-fastball utilization has dropped by 6.1% from last season to this one (37.4% to 31.3%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 111 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 away games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Daniel Schneemann has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.95 Units / 59% ROI)