Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
(-105/-115)+200
The Miami Marlins will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 6, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup in this series. The Marlins, currently struggling with a 13-21 record, are coming off a tough loss to the Dodgers, who defeated them 7-4 yesterday. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are riding high with a strong 24-11 record, making them one of the top teams in the league.
On the mound, the Marlins will start Cal Quantrill, who has had a rough season so far, holding a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 8.10. His advanced stats indicate he may have been unlucky, but he still projects to pitch just 4.8 innings today, allowing 3.0 earned runs on average. In contrast, the Dodgers will counter with Tony Gonsolin, who is considered an average pitcher but has shown potential in his limited appearances this season, with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 4.50.
The Dodgers’ offense ranks 3rd in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs effectively, while the Marlins’ offense sits at a more modest 17th. The projections suggest that the Dodgers will score around 6.00 runs today, reflecting their offensive potency against a struggling Marlins pitching staff.
With the Marlins’ bullpen ranked dead last in MLB Power Rankings, the Dodgers are likely to capitalize on any opportunities that arise late in the game. The current Game Total is set at a high 10.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. Given the current moneyline of +200 for the Marlins, they are viewed as significant underdogs, but with Gonsolin on the mound, the Dodgers will need to stay sharp to avoid any surprises.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Max Muncy has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Muncy.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .332 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .343 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue in the league in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)From last season to this one, Xavier Edwards’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.1 mph to 83.5 mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 36 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-235)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)