See Picks and Betting Line for Cubs vs Blue Jays – Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Chicago Cubs on August 13, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Blue Jays at 70-50 and the Cubs at 67-51. The stakes are high as the Blue Jays look to solidify their playoff position, while the Cubs aim to keep pace in a competitive race.

In their last game, the Cubs fell to the Blue Jays 6-3, a result that showcased Toronto’s potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB. This offensive power could pose a challenge for Cubs’ starter Cade Horton, who has been projected to struggle against teams with low strikeout rates like the Blue Jays. Gausman, on the other hand, has had an average season, currently holding a 3.85 ERA. However, he has shown moments of brilliance and is expected to pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing 3.0 earned runs on average.

Cade Horton enters the game with a solid 3.18 ERA but his 4.41 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. He projects for only 4.9 innings today, which is a concerning sign against a high-powered Toronto lineup. With the Blue Jays ranking 1st in batting average, they have the potential to capitalize on Horton’s low strikeout rate.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen is ranked 3rd in MLB, adding another layer of difficulty for the Cubs as they look to rally late in the game. Given the projections and the current form of both teams, Toronto’s offense could prove too much for Chicago, especially considering the Cubs’ bullpen ranks 20th. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors may lean toward the Blue Jays, who have an implied team total of 4.45 runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Cade Horton has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.1% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Dansby Swanson is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 10.2% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs makes them the #4 offense in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  In his previous start, Kevin Gausman was rolling and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Daulton Varsho has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games (+18.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 games (+6.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)