See Picks and Betting Line for Brewers vs Marlins – Saturday, July 5, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Miami Marlins

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins gear up for their matchup on July 5, 2025, both teams face critical moments in their seasons. The Brewers, sitting at 49-39, are performing well and are firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Marlins, at 39-47, are struggling with a below-average season. In their last game, the Brewers took down the Marlins, showcasing their offensive prowess.

On the mound, the Brewers will likely hand the ball to Chad Patrick, who has an ERA of 3.51 this year, indicating solid performance despite being rated as a below-average pitcher. Patrick projects to pitch around 5.4 innings today, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 4.7 batters, which, while below average, shows he can hold his own.

Cal Quantrill will start for the Marlins. He has been battling through a difficult season with a 5.42 ERA and a Power Ranking of #311 among starting pitchers, making him one of the weakest links in Major League Baseball. Quantrill’s projections suggest he will pitch 4.8 innings, allowing nearly 2.8 earned runs and giving up 1.9 walks, which could spell trouble for Miami.

Offensively, the Marlins rank as the 10th best in batting average but falter with a 26th ranking in home runs this season. Their struggles against flyball pitchers like Patrick could be exacerbated by their low power output, a crucial factor in this matchup. Conversely, the Brewers boast a respectable all-around offense, laying the groundwork for what could be another competitive game.

The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, and with the Brewers favored heading into today’s action, they present a compelling betting option for those looking to capitalize on the team’s recent form and the Marlins’ struggles.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+140/-185)
  Chad Patrick’s 87.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 2nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Miami’s #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Milwaukee Brewers bats as a unit place 30th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 6.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 65 games (+12.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.05 Units / 46% ROI)