Score Updates for Reds vs Mets – 9/8/24

Cincinnati Reds

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New York Mets

As the Cincinnati Reds head to Citi Field to face the New York Mets on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in different trajectories this season. The Mets, currently 78-64, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Reds sit at 68-75, struggling to find their footing. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers, as the Mets are expected to start Luis Severino, who has a solid 3.84 ERA this year, despite ranking as only the 135th best starter in the league. In contrast, Julian Aguiar is projected to take the mound for the Reds, with a troubling ERA of 6.48 and a SIERA of 5.74, indicating he has been both unlucky and prone to poor performance.

In their last game, the Mets showcased their offensive power, which ranks 8th in MLB and 4th in home runs, hitting three homers and securing a victory against the Reds. Meanwhile, Aguiar’s high flyball rate plays right into the Mets’ strengths, making this a challenging outing for him. The projections suggest that the Mets could score an impressive 4.62 runs, while the Reds are anticipated to struggle with a lower total of 4.01 runs.

Despite their struggles, the Reds’ offense has proven to be average overall, ranking 16th, but they are particularly adept at stealing bases, leading the league in that category. However, with the Mets’ strong offensive capabilities and Aguiar’s difficulties on the mound, the Mets appear to have the upper hand heading into this contest. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Mets favored heavily, this matchup promises an exciting clash as the season heads toward its conclusion.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+175)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Ty France has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Luke Maile, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+160)
  Luis Severino has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 4.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jesse Winker’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 88.8-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 85.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 84 games (+14.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 123 games (+8.20 Units / 5% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+16.95 Units / 27% ROI)