Score Updates for Orioles vs Padres – 9/2/25

Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Baltimore Orioles on September 2, 2025, in a matchup that carries significant weight for both teams, especially given the Padres are enjoying a solid season with a 76-62 record. Meanwhile, the Orioles are struggling at 62-76, reflecting a challenging year. In their previous game, the Padres secured a victory, which adds momentum as they face off against the Orioles for the second game of this interleague series.

Yu Darvish is slated to take the mound for San Diego. While his Win/Loss record of 3-4 and an ERA of 5.66 suggest some struggles, his 4.32 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit unlucky and could improve. Darvish has averaged 5.1 innings pitched this season, allowing 2.1 earned runs, which is a positive sign for the Padres. On the other hand, Tyler Wells will start for Baltimore, and his below-average performance this season, coupled with a projected 2.5 earned runs in 5.2 innings, raises concerns for the Orioles.

Offensively, the Padres rank 15th in MLB, but they excel in batting average, sitting 8th overall. However, their power numbers are lacking, as they rank 29th in home runs. In contrast, the Orioles are 17th in offense but struggle with a 22nd ranking in batting average, indicating their own difficulties at the plate.

With the Padres’ bullpen rated as the 1st best in MLB, they hold a significant advantage in late-game situations, especially given the Orioles’ 28th-ranked bullpen. This matchup favors the Padres, especially with their current form and the projections suggesting a favorable outcome for them in this game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tyler Wells – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all SPs, Tyler Wells’s fastball spin rate of 2377 rpm grades out in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  San Diego’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Jackson Holliday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Yu Darvish has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 16.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Manny Machado has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 12.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 125 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 69 away games (+14.83 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.45 Units / 52% ROI)