Score Updates for Orioles vs Padres – 9/2/25

Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres host the Baltimore Orioles on September 2, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum, especially after the Orioles edged out the Padres in a close 4-3 game yesterday. The Padres, currently sitting at 76-62, are enjoying a strong season and boast the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, a significant edge as they enter the second game of this interleague series.

Yu Darvish is set to take the mound for San Diego, despite his struggles this season reflected in a 5.66 ERA. However, advanced projections indicate he may be due for better results, as his 4.32 xFIP suggests some bad luck has played a role in his performance. Darvish’s ability to pitch an average of 5.0 innings while allowing a projected 2.2 earned runs positions him as a stabilizing force against a struggling Orioles offense.

On the other side, Tyler Wells will start for Baltimore. Wells has also had a challenging campaign, and while he projects to pitch approximately 5.1 innings, he’s expected to allow 2.8 earned runs on average, which is below average compared to Darvish. With the Orioles ranking 29th in bullpen effectiveness, they may struggle to keep the game close if Wells falters.

Offensively, the Padres rank 8th in team batting average, but their home run production ranks a dismal 29th. They will need to find power against Wells if they hope to capitalize on their strengths. With a high implied team total of 4.47 runs, the Padres are favored to come out on top in this matchup, especially given the current state of both pitching staff and recent performances.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tyler Wells – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Out of all SPs, Tyler Wells’s fastball spin rate of 2377 rpm grades out in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  San Diego’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Jackson Holliday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Yu Darvish has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 16.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 125 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 69 away games (+14.83 Units / 19% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 64% ROI)