Score Updates for Cardinals vs Reds – 8/31/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 31, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race for mid-pack standings, with the Reds at 68-68 and the Cardinals slightly behind at 68-69. This matchup is crucial, not just for bragging rights in the National League Central, but also for the momentum each team needs as the season winds down.

In their last encounter, the Reds edged out the Cardinals in a low-scoring affair, showcasing their pitching prowess. Brady Singer, projected to start for Cincinnati, has had an inconsistent season with an 11-9 record and a 4.06 ERA. Although he ranks as the 122nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance has been bolstered by a solid Reds offense, which ranks 18th overall. However, the Reds’ power numbers leave much to be desired, sitting 24th in team home runs.

On the other side, Andre Pallante takes the mound for the Cardinals, carrying a disappointing 6-12 record and a 5.44 ERA. Despite his struggles, his 3.98 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, hinting at potential for improvement. The Cardinals’ offense ranks 22nd in MLB, particularly struggling to generate power as they sit 27th in home runs.

The Reds are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their slightly better overall performance this season. With an implied team total of 4.51 runs, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on Pallante’s weaknesses. As both teams look to find their footing, this matchup could be pivotal in deciding the trajectory of their seasons.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Andre Pallante’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (42.2% compared to 30.9% last season) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Jordan Walker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 96.4-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, Jordan Walker, James Crooks).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Brady Singer’s 2433-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 82nd percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Steer are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds ranks them as the #28 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 125 games (+24.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Andre Pallante has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)