Score Prediction and Insights for Pirates vs Phillies Match – May 17, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Philadelphia Phillies

On May 17, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park for the second game in their series. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season with a record of 26-18, while the Pirates are struggling significantly at 15-30. The Phillies have already shown their dominance, winning the first game of this series by a score of 8-4.

Zack Wheeler, projected to start for Philadelphia, is having an elite season, currently ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a Win/Loss record of 4-1 and an impressive 2.95 ERA, Wheeler has been a key factor in the Phillies’ success. His peripherals suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this year, indicating he may improve further. In his last start on May 11, he pitched a remarkable 7 innings without allowing any earned runs, which only adds to his momentum heading into this matchup.

In contrast, Carmen Mlodzinski, starting for the Pirates, has struggled, holding a 1-3 record with a 5.20 ERA. The projections suggest that he will pitch around 4.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, which doesn’t bode well for a Pirates offense ranked 28th in MLB. Their inability to hit for power, with only 32 home runs so far this season, is a significant disadvantage against a high-flyball pitcher like Wheeler.

Philadelphia’s offense ranks 9th overall in MLB, and with an implied team total of 5.66 runs for this game, they are expected to capitalize on Mlodzinski’s shortcomings. As the Phillies look to build on their current success, they remain a strong betting favorite, indicating confidence in their ability to extend their winning ways against a struggling Pirates team.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+235)
  With a 1.01 difference between Carmen Mlodzinski’s 5.20 ERA and his 4.19 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to see positive regression in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-315)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Bryson Stott’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-315)
  The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-325)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+5.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-150/+120)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)