Score Prediction and Insights for Pirates vs Brewers Match – August 12, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Pittsburgh Pirates

@
Milwaukee Brewers logo

Milwaukee Brewers

+110O/U: 7
(+100/-120)
-130

The Milwaukee Brewers will welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates for the second game of their series on August 12, 2025, after handing the Pirates a decisive 7-1 defeat in the opener. With a solid record of 74-44, the Brewers are in the midst of a strong season, while the Pirates, at 51-69, find themselves struggling.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, boasting a commendable 3.03 ERA this season, ranking him as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, the advanced projections suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.05, indicating potential regression. Peralta’s recent performance included 5 innings pitched with 1 earned run and 7 strikeouts against the Pirates on August 5, showcasing his capability to perform effectively.

Opposing him will be Paul Skenes, the elite right-hander for the Pirates, who has an impressive 1.94 ERA, placing him 2nd among MLB starters. Skenes has also shown dominance in his last outing, throwing 6 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts. However, he faces a Brewers offense that ranks 12th overall but excels with the 3rd best batting average and 2nd most stolen bases in MLB.

Despite the Brewers’ recent success, their projected total of 3.58 runs is a bit low, reflecting the close nature of this matchup. Conversely, the Pirates’ struggles with a projected total of 3.42 runs further emphasize their offensive woes, which rank them 30th in the league. Given the current form of both pitchers and the Brewers’ overall performance, Milwaukee appears poised to continue its winning ways in this pivotal matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
    Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 19.9% more often this season (52.3%) than he did last year (32.4%).
    Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
  • Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1300/-10000)
    Ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Nick Gonzales has average 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year.
    Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
  • It may be best to expect better results for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
    Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
    Among every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.
    Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
  • William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
    William Contreras’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
    Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
  • Milwaukee Brewers bats as a group grade out 30th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 6.5% Barrel%.
    Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
    The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 63 games (+28.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
    The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 108 games (+22.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
    Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+6.70 Units / 112% ROI)