Score for Twins vs White Sox Game – April 02, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Minnesota Twins on April 2, 2025, in a game that carries significant weight for both teams, both of which are struggling early in the season. The White Sox, with a 2-3 record, and the Twins, at 1-4, are in desperate need of a win to turn their fortunes around. In their last matchup, the Twins edged out the White Sox, adding to the latter’s woes.

Chicago’s Sean Burke is set to toe the rubber against Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez. Burke has had a rocky start to his season, with a 0.00 ERA through one game, but advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky, as evidenced by his 4.98 xFIP, indicating a potential regression. Burke is projected to pitch just 4.8 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs with a concerning 4.3 hits per game.

On the other hand, Lopez, who ranks as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, looks to build on a solid outing despite a 0-1 record. He projects for 6.0 innings with only 2.4 earned runs and is backed by a strong groundball rate of 68%.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 31st in MLB, showcasing their struggles with a .202 batting average and a mere 8 home runs this season. The Twins aren’t much better, ranking 59th in terms of overall offensive metrics, which puts both teams in a tough spot. The projections suggest a low-scoring affair with a Game Total set at 7.5 runs.

Given the White Sox’s low implied team total of 3.22 runs for the game and the Twins’ higher projection of 4.28 runs, the matchup heavily favors Minnesota. However, if Burke can defy expectations, the White Sox might just pull off an upset at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-185)
  Pablo Lopez has been unlucky since the start of last season, posting a 4.07 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.54 — a 0.53 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Since the start of last season, Matt Wallner’s 17.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 97th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Minnesota’s 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #25 squad in the league since the start of last season by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Out of all SPs, Sean Burke’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 76th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Travis Jankowski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Travis Jankowski has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jacob Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jacob Amaya ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 100 games (+14.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-265)
  Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)