Score for Red Sox vs Rockies Game – July 22, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies host the Boston Red Sox on July 22, 2024, at Coors Field in the first game of their interleague series. The Rockies, currently enduring a rough season with a 36-64 record, will look to bounce back after a narrow 3-2 loss to the Giants on July 21. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, who stand at 53-45 and are having an above-average season, also aim to rebound following a 9-6 loss to the Dodgers.

The pitching matchup features Colorado’s Austin Gomber, a lefty ranked #167 among MLB starters, against Boston’s right-handed Tanner Houck, who is ranked #24. Gomber has struggled this season with a 2-6 record and a 4.61 ERA, and his projections for today are not promising. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, predicts Gomber will pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs and striking out 4.0 batters. On the other hand, Houck has been stellar with an 8-6 record and an excellent 2.54 ERA. He is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, yielding 2.9 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. Despite his impressive ERA, his 3.13 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky this season.

Offensively, the Red Sox hold a clear advantage. They rank 6th in MLB in overall offense, 4th in batting average, 8th in home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. The Rockies, while average in batting average (#14) and home runs (#15), struggle more in stolen bases (#20). Both teams have weak bullpens, with the Rockies ranked 24th and the Red Sox 25th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Rockies’ best hitter, Brenton Doyle, has posted a .278 batting average with a .818 OPS, while the Red Sox’s standout, Jarren Duran, boasts a .290 average and .850 OPS. Given the Rockies’ underdog status with a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%, they face an uphill battle. The projections favor the Red Sox with a 58% win probability, suggesting they are likely to come out on top in this high-scoring affair, as indicated by the game total of 10.0 runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tanner Houck has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.6% more often this year (70.1%) than he did last year (60.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Rafael Devers has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 15.2% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Austin Gomber’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2248 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2191 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 84.4-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 80.9-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Aaron Schunk – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Schunk in the 4th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 64 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-160)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 away games (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)