Score for Nationals vs Cubs Game – September 07, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the Washington Nationals on September 7, 2025, both teams find themselves in starkly different positions in the standings. The Cubs, sitting at 81-61, are firmly in the race for a playoff spot, while the Nationals languish at 57-84. This matchup becomes even more intriguing as the Cubs seek to bounce back after their recent 2-1 loss to the Nationals, while the Nationals aim to build on their unexpected victory.

On the mound for the Cubs, Drew Pomeranz is projected to make his first start of the season after 47 appearances out of the bullpen. Despite being ranked as the 208th best starting pitcher in MLB, Pomeranz boasts an impressive ERA of 2.45. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for some regression, with a 4.15 xFIP indicating he has been somewhat lucky thus far.

Taking the hill for the Nationals is Andrew Alvarez, who has had a brief but notable stint this season. While he has yet to allow an earned run in his last outing, his overall performance has been shaky at best, with a 4.28 xFIP that hints at potential struggles ahead.

The Cubs’ offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs, especially against a high-walk pitcher like Alvarez, who has struggled with control this year. The projections indicate a favorable matchup for the Cubs, who are expected to capitalize on Alvarez’s difficulties, while the Nationals’ offense, ranked 25th overall, may find it challenging to support their pitcher against a strong Cubs bullpen that ranks 4th in MLB. With a high implied team total of 4.57 runs, Chicago looks poised to take advantage of this opportunity and potentially come away with a crucial win.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  With 9 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Andrew Alvarez faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Riley Adams is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Out of all starters, Drew Pomeranz’s fastball spin rate of 2641 rpm is in the 99th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Willi Castro has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 78.7-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Willi Castro pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games at home (+18.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 away games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+14.00 Units / 156% ROI)