Score for Nationals vs Cubs Game – September 07, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

On September 7, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Washington Nationals for the third game of their series at Wrigley Field. This matchup carries significant importance, especially for the Cubs, who currently hold an 81-61 record and are firmly in contention, while the Nationals sit at 57-84 and have struggled throughout the season. In their previous game, the Cubs fell short against the Nationals, losing 2-1, making this a crucial bounce-back opportunity for the home team.

The Cubs are projected to start Drew Pomeranz, a left-handed pitcher who has excelled with a 2.45 ERA this season, though his advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression with a 4.15 xFIP. Pomeranz has primarily been a reliever, making 47 appearances out of the bullpen. In contrast, Andrew Alvarez, also a left-handed pitcher for the Nationals, boasts a perfect 0.00 ERA but comes with a concerning 4.28 xFIP that indicates he might not maintain this level of performance. Alvarez is projected for 4.7 innings, which is below average, making him susceptible to a potent Cubs offense that ranks 9th best in MLB.

The Cubs’ offense has shown depth, ranking 3rd in stolen bases and 8th in home runs, while the Nationals have struggled with a 25th ranking in overall offensive production. With Pomeranz’s flyball tendencies and the Nationals’ lack of power, it seems likely that he can navigate the lineup effectively. Furthermore, the projections suggest a favorable outing for the Cubs, who have a strong bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, increasing their chances of sealing a victory against a lower-tier Nationals bullpen ranked 22nd.

Betting markets currently favor the Cubs with a moneyline of -190, reflecting a high implied team total of 4.31 runs, while the Nationals are seen as underdogs with an implied total of just 3.19 runs. As the Cubs look to bounce back, opportunities abound for a strong offensive showing against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 9 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Andrew Alvarez faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Riley Adams is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Drew Pomeranz – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+175/-235)
  Out of all starters, Drew Pomeranz’s fastball spin rate of 2641 rpm is in the 99th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Dansby Swanson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 97.9-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games at home (+18.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 away games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+14.00 Units / 156% ROI)