Score for Mariners vs Padres Game – May 17, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on May 17, 2025, the stakes are high in this compelling interleague matchup. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Padres standing at 27-16 and the Mariners at 24-19. The Padres hold the advantage in the standings and are projected to start Nick Pivetta, who has been performing well this year. He carries a 5-2 record with a commendable 3.05 ERA and ranks as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced stats.

The last time these two teams squared off, the Padres emerged victorious, showcasing their strong offense, which ranks 2nd in team batting average and 11th overall this season. However, they have been less impressive in the home run department, ranking 22nd. Despite this, the Padres’ lineup has been consistent, led by their best hitter, who’s slugged a home run and posted a .350 batting average over the past week.

Emerson Hancock, projected to start for the Mariners, has struggled significantly with a 1-2 record and a staggering 6.91 ERA. While projections suggest he could perform better, it’s worth noting that he faces a challenging lineup in the Padres. Hancock’s low strikeout rate—just 17.1%—will likely be tested against a Padres team that excels at putting the ball in play, as they have the least strikeouts in MLB.

With the Padres holding a favorable moneyline of -170 and an implied team total of 4.47 runs, the odds suggest they could flex their offensive muscle against Hancock, making them strong favorites to claim victory in this exciting encounter at Petco Park.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (+165)
  The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jorge Polanco tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 10.6% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners makes them the #5 offense in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Because groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Nick Pivetta (38.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under Total Bases
  Martin Maldonado has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (31.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Emerson Hancock is a pitch-to-contact type (5th percentile K%) — great news for Maldonado.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+20.65 Units / 76% ROI)