Score for Dodgers vs Cardinals Game – August 17, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 17, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 60-62, are in the midst of an average season, while the Dodgers boast a strong 72-51 record, positioning themselves as one of the league’s top teams. The two clubs squared off just yesterday, with the Dodgers edging out the Cardinals in a tight 7-6 contest.

Andre Pallante is projected to take the mound for St. Louis, coming off a solid outing that saw him go 6 innings with only 1 earned run against him. Pallante’s 4.21 ERA is above average, and he has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.68 xERA, suggesting he could improve moving forward. The right-hander’s high groundball rate (63%) could potentially neutralize the Dodgers’ powerful offense, which ranks 3rd in the league with 139 home runs.

Bobby Miller, starting for the Dodgers, has struggled this season with an 8.07 ERA. Despite his poor performance, projections suggest he could see improvement, as his 4.64 xFIP indicates some bad luck. Miller’s last start was disastrous, allowing 9 earned runs in just 4 innings, a trend the Cardinals will likely look to exploit.

St. Louis’s offense, while ranking 20th in the league overall, is led by Alec Burleson, who has been the team’s standout hitter this season. Conversely, Los Angeles has Shohei Ohtani, their best hitter, who has excelled with a .291 batting average and 37 home runs this year.

Betting markets reflect a closely contested game, with the Cardinals having a current moneyline of -105 and the Dodgers at -115. Projections suggest a slightly higher expected run total for the Dodgers, but the Cardinals have the talent to pull off an upset in this pivotal series matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Bobby Miller – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Bobby Miller has tallied 12.4 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 13th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kevin Kiermaier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Kevin Kiermaier tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Compared to their .345 overall projected rate, the .334 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Andre Pallante’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (68.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 6.7% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #28 club in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.55 Units / 69% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+125/-160)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)