Royals vs Yankees Picks and Betting Odds – 4/16/2025

Kansas City Royals

@

New York Yankees

On April 16, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium for the third game of their series. The Yankees are coming off a solid 4-2 victory against the Royals yesterday, and with a 10-7 record this season, they are showing strong form. In contrast, the Royals sit at 8-10 and have struggled significantly, making them a challenging opponent for the Yankees.

Yankees’ pitcher Clarke Schmidt is projected to start, bringing a mixed bag of recent performance. While Schmidt ranks as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his last outing on October 28, 2024, was abbreviated, lasting only 3 innings and allowing 3 earned runs. Today, he is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings, allowing 1.8 earned runs, while striking out 4.6 batters. However, he has been less effective at limiting hits and walks, projecting to allow 3.8 hits and 1.3 walks, which could be problematic against a team that needs to capitalize on any mistakes.

On the other side, Kris Bubic of the Royals has been performing well, ranking 55th among starting pitchers. He has a solid 2-1 record this season, with an impressive ERA of 0.96, although his 2.99 xFIP suggests some regression may be on the horizon. Bubic is expected to pitch 5.1 innings, with projections indicating he will allow 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.3 batters. However, he also struggles with hits and walks, allowing an average of 4.5 hits and 2.1 walks.

The Yankees boast the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in home runs and 6th in batting average. With a high implied team total of 4.31 runs, they are poised to take advantage of Bubic’s potential vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Royals’ offense ranks 28th overall, which could hinder their ability to keep pace. Given these matchups, the Yankees are favored to secure another victory.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Over his previous 3 games started, Kris Bubic has recorded a colossal 21 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Maikel Garcia has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last year’s 90.4-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Clarke Schmidt to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kris Bubic who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.330 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .355 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 55% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.15 Units / 57% ROI)