Royals vs Reds Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Saturday August 17, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on August 17, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Reds are currently 60-62, having had an average season, while the Royals stand at 67-55, showcasing an above-average performance. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the second game in their series.

In their last outing, the Royals faced a tough opponent and managed to secure a win, which adds momentum to their side. The Reds, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back after a disappointing recent stretch.

On the mound, the Reds will send out Nick Lodolo, who has been solid with a 3.99 ERA this season and a commendable 9-4 record. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 5.8 hits and 1.5 walks today, which could be concerning against a Royals lineup that boasts the 12th best offense in MLB. The projections suggest Lodolo may not be as dominant as his rank of 60th among starting pitchers implies.

Opposing him will be Michael Wacha, who has a stellar 3.50 ERA and is ranked 85th among pitchers, indicating he has had an above-average season. Wacha’s ability to limit runs could be pivotal, especially since he projects to allow 2.9 earned runs on average. However, his xFIP of 4.27 suggests he might have had some luck this season, and the Reds’ offense, despite ranking 16th overall, has the potential to exploit any weaknesses.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest. The Reds hold a moneyline of -130, reflecting a 54% implied probability of winning, which seems favorable given their home advantage. The Royals, with a +110 moneyline, are not far behind at 46%. Ultimately, this game could hinge on how well Lodolo can manage the Royals’ offense, as both teams vie for a crucial victory in this interleague matchup.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Tallying 17.3 outs per start this year on average, Michael Wacha falls in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City’s 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in baseball: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Lodolo has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.5% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.225) suggests that Jake Fraley has had some very good luck this year with his .276 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 109 games (+10.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 67 of their last 119 games (+7.89 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Jonathan India has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.30 Units / 88% ROI)