Rockies vs Mets Betting Guide and Expert Picks May 30th, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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New York Mets

The New York Mets are set to host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on May 30, 2025, marking the beginning of a new series. The Mets currently hold a solid 34-22 record, showing they are in good form this season, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 9-47. The disparity between these teams’ performances is stark, with New York ranking 9th for offense in Major League Baseball, while Colorado sits a dismal 29th.

In their last outing, the Mets fell to the Chicago Cubs with a score of 9-4, highlighting a potential need for rebound against a Rockies team that lost 2-1 to the San Francisco Giants. The Mets will rely on left-handed pitcher David Peterson, who boasts an impressive 2.79 ERA this year. His last start was outstanding, as he pitched a complete game, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 7 batters. On the flip side, the Rockies will counter with Kyle Freeland, whose 5.86 ERA and 0-7 record demonstrate his struggles on the mound.

Interestingly, Peterson’s advanced metrics reveal he may have enjoyed some luck this season, as his 3.46 xFIP suggests he could face challenges moving forward. Meanwhile, Freeland’s 3.63 xFIP hints at potential for improvement, although his recent performances have not reflected that.

The Mets are significant favorites with a moneyline of -320, reflecting a 74% implied probability of winning. Colorado, viewed as a massive underdog at +270 and a 26% implied win probability, has a tough road ahead. The Mets are projected to score an average of 5.10 runs, while the Rockies have a low projected total of just 2.90 runs. It’s crucial for the Mets to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their push for a strong season as they take on a Rockies team that has struggled to find consistent success at the plate.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Freeland has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 5.6% more often this year (60.8%) than he did last year (55.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  David Peterson’s 90.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.3-mph decrease from last season’s 91.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+7.79 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 25 away games (+16.25 Units / 46% ROI)
• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-155/+120)
  Kyle Freeland has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)