Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
On June 8, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Philadelphia Phillies at PNC Park for the third game of their series. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 25-40, while the Phillies sit comfortably at 37-27, showcasing their strong performance. In their last outing, the Phillies emerged victorious, affirming their status as one of the top teams in the National League.
Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes is projected to take the mound. Despite a 4-6 record and a 2.05 ERA this year, Skenes ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His impressive ERA, however, is somewhat masked by a 3.04 xFIP, suggesting he may not sustain this level of success. Skenes projects to average 5.9 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, while striking out 6.2 batters, indicating he might have an edge despite his team’s offensive woes.
Opposing him is Cristopher Sanchez, who boasts a 5-1 record with a respectable 3.15 ERA, placing him 15th among starting pitchers. The projections suggest Sanchez will pitch just under 6 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, which should keep the Phillies competitive.
While the Pirates rank 27th in overall offense, their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank 5th in MLB. In contrast, the Phillies have an 8th-ranked offense and will likely capitalize on Skenes’s inconsistencies, particularly since the Pirates’ lineup ranks among the highest in strikeouts.
Given the current dynamics, the Pirates might find it challenging to turn their season around against a skilled Phillies lineup. Both teams enter this matchup with low implied team totals of 3.50 runs, indicating that a tight, low-scoring affair is expected.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Among all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Alec Bohm – Over/Under HitsAlec Bohm is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under Pitching OutsCompared to the average pitcher, Paul Skenes has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 7.3 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under Total BasesOneil Cruz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last season’s 95.3-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Pittsburgh Pirates batters as a unit rank 6th- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 93.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under Game TotalThe Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineThe Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)