Review the Latest Player Stats for Nationals vs Mets – Wednesday, September 18th, 2024

Washington Nationals

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets and Washington Nationals square off for the third game of their series at Citi Field on September 18, 2024, the stakes are high for the Mets, who are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. With an 83-68 record, the Mets are having an above-average season and are vying to keep their postseason hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Nationals, sitting at 68-83, are not in contention for a playoff spot this year.

The Mets come into this game riding high after a dominant 10-1 victory over the Nationals on September 17. Their offense, which ranks 10th in MLB, has been a force, especially in the power department, ranking 6th in home runs. Francisco Lindor has been a standout this season, boasting a .271 batting average and 31 home runs. Recently, Starling Marte has been on a tear, hitting .500 with a 1.300 OPS over the last week.

On the mound, the Mets will send out Jose Quintana, who has a respectable 3.91 ERA but has been somewhat lucky according to his 4.58 xFIP. Despite being ranked 169th among starting pitchers, Quintana is projected to allow just 2.2 earned runs over 5.7 innings. He’ll need to navigate a Nationals lineup that lacks power, ranking 29th in home runs but excels in stolen bases, leading MLB.

The Nationals will counter with DJ Herz, who has an above-average ranking of 85th among starters. Herz has a solid 3.70 ERA and is expected to allow 2.2 earned runs over 4.9 innings. However, his flyball tendencies could be problematic against the Mets’ potent lineup.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mets are favored with a 59% chance of winning, slightly above their implied probability of 60%. Given their recent performance and the Nationals’ struggles, the Mets are well-positioned to continue their push toward the postseason.

Washington Nationals Insights

• DJ Herz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  With 8 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, DJ Herz will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jacob Young has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 85-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Washington Nationals have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Jose Quintana’s fastball velocity of 90.1 mph is in the 5th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luisangel Acuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Washington’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jose Acuna, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets bats jointly grade out 4th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 9.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-170)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 99 games (+15.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 140 games (+7.35 Units / 4% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jacob Young has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)