Review the Brewers vs Braves Match Preview and Winning Probability – August 6th, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Atlanta Braves

On August 6, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Truist Park in the first game of their series. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, with the Braves sitting at 60-51 and the Brewers slightly ahead at 62-49. The Braves are having an above-average season but will need to capitalize on their home field to keep pace with the Brewers.

In their last outing, the Braves faced off against the New York Mets, while the Brewers played against the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers are riding a good season, bolstered by a strong offense that ranks 10th in the league, including a stellar 5th in team batting average. However, they are facing a Braves team that is known for their power, ranking 10th in home runs.

Projected starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Colin Rea will play pivotal roles in this matchup. Elder, who has struggled with a 5.67 ERA this season, is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs today, while his xFIP suggests better performance is on the horizon. Conversely, Rea has had a solid season with a 3.59 ERA, but projections show he may be due for regression, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs in 4.9 innings.

With the Braves’ offense showing average rankings across the board, they will need to rely on their 7th ranked bullpen to back up Elder. The Braves have an implied team total of 4.50 runs, which indicates confidence in their ability to score against Rea. As bettors consider their options, it will be crucial to watch how well Elder can manage the Brewers’ lineup while the Braves look to exploit Rea’s weaknesses.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Colin Rea has gone to his slider 6.3% more often this year (17%) than he did last year (10.7%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Sal Frelick has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 75.1-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bryce Elder’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (90.6 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (89.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, putting up a .401 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .052 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 100 games (+30.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 77 games (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+12.20 Units / 25% ROI)