Review the Braves vs Giants Match Preview and Winning Probability – August 14th, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the Atlanta Braves on August 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight battle in the National League. The Giants carry a record of 61-61, while the Braves sit slightly above at 63-56. After their last matchup on August 13, where the Giants fell to the Braves 4-3, the stakes are high for San Francisco as they look to salvage a game in this series.

The Giants are set to start Robbie Ray, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs with a strong strikeout potential of 6.8 batters per game. Ray is having an average season, evidenced by his 2-1 record and a decent ERA of 3.98. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his SIERA of 3.39 indicates better future performance. On the opposing mound, the Braves will counter with Grant Holmes, who has struggled in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings. Holmes has an ERA of 3.79 and projects poorly with only 4.7 innings pitched on average.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th in the league, contrasting with the Braves’ 13th-place status. San Francisco’s best hitter, Matt Chapman, continues to swing a hot bat, contributing significantly over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna provides a powerful presence, leading the team with 35 home runs this season.

Despite the close odds, with the Giants at -130 and the Braves at +110, the projections favor San Francisco slightly, giving them a 53% chance to secure the win today. With their top-ranked bullpen backing Ray and the potential for offensive fireworks, the Giants may just have the edge they need to turn the tide in this pivotal matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Grant Holmes has compiled a colossal 5.52 ERA over his previous 3 outings.
  Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball bats like Orlando Arcia tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Robbie Ray.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Patrick Bailey has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 104 games (+26.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 50 games (+21.65 Units / 43% ROI)