Review Rockies vs Brewers Bets and Betting Trends – Saturday, June 28, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Colorado Rockies at American Family Field on June 28, 2025, they are riding high after a decisive 10-6 victory over the Rockies just the day before. Milwaukee sits comfortably above .500 with a 46-36 record, showcasing a solid season, while Colorado has struggled immensely, languishing at 18-64.

Quinn Priester is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, having recorded a respectable 3.68 ERA this season, though his 4.21 SIERA suggests he may have been a bit lucky to achieve those numbers. Priester’s recent performance saw him go just three innings with three earned runs in a brief outing on June 22, but he held a 5-2 record overall. Facing him is Antonio Senzatela, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB with a dismal 6.48 ERA and a 3-10 record. Senzatela’s xFIP does imply some bad luck, but his recent outings have not shown significant improvement.

From an offensive perspective, the Brewers rank 18th in MLB overall, but are notably 2nd in stolen bases, which could test the Rockies’ defense. In contrast, Colorado’s offense ranks 25th, struggling with a poor .261 batting average and a low home run rate, indicative of their offensive woes.

Betting markets heavily favor the Brewers, who have an implied team total of 5.23 runs for this matchup. With Colorado’s bullpen ranking 11th in MLB, they will need every bit of support as they face a Milwaukee team that thrives on exploiting pitching weaknesses. As this series unfolds, the Brewers look poised to capitalize on their strengths against a Rockies team that continues to struggle.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Antonio Senzatela’s high usage percentage of his fastball (56.2% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Ryan Ritter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ryan Ritter has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.2-mph dropping to 72.6-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .301 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .325 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-265)
  Quinn Priester was rolling in his last GS and conceded 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Antonio Senzatela.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #30 squad in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-290)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 78 games (+12.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Tyler Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.55 Units / 68% ROI)