Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+135
The Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to conclude their three-game series on July 14, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, struggling with a 27-70 record, have had a tough season and were handed another loss yesterday, falling 6-2 to the Pirates. The Pirates, sitting at 47-48, are having an average season and will look to capitalize on their momentum.
Chicago’s Jared Shuster will take the mound against Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller in this interleague matchup. Shuster, a left-handed pitcher, has had a challenging year, ranking as the 311th best starting pitcher in MLB. His 1-2 record and 3.52 ERA are deceptive, as his 5.18 xFIP suggests he has been lucky and could regress. Shuster’s last start on July 4 was abbreviated, lasting just 2 innings and allowing 2 earned runs. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Shuster to pitch only 3.5 innings today, allowing 2.1 earned runs, 3.8 hits, and 1.2 walks on average.
On the other side, Mitch Keller has been a solid presence for the Pirates, with a 10-5 record and a 3.40 ERA###102. His 3.94 xFIP indicates some luck, but his performance has been consistently strong. Keller’s last outing on July 8 was impressive, as he pitched 8 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs. He is projected to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 6.5 hits, and 1.4 walks on average.
Offensively, both teams have struggled. The White Sox rank 30th in MLB in overall offense, while the Pirates aren’t far ahead, ranking 28th. Chicago’s best hitter this season has been Andrew Vaughn, while Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds leads his team with a .281 batting average and 17 home runs.
Despite the White Sox’s poor season, THE BAT X projects their win probability at 44%, higher than the implied market probability of 39%. This discrepancy suggests potential value in betting on Chicago, even as a significant underdog. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting average expectations for scoring.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Mitch Keller – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Mitch Keller has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.9 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Jack Suwinski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)Jared Shuster has been lucky this year, notching a 3.52 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.08 — a 1.56 deviation.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Nicky Lopez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.3-mph dropping to 79.2-mph over the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert, Paul DeJong, Korey Lee).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+11.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.10 Units / 51% ROI)