Review Phillies vs Brewers Bets and Betting Trends – Monday, September 1, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 1, 2025, both teams find themselves in solid positions within the National League playoff race. The Brewers currently sit at 85-53, showcasing a strong season, while the Phillies are close behind at 79-58. This matchup marks the beginning of a critical series that could impact both teams’ postseason aspirations.

In their most recent outings, the Brewers have been riding high, and their offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB this season, with an impressive 2nd place in team batting average. The Brewers’ best hitter has been on a tear lately, recording 10 hits and 4 runs over the past week, contributing to their offensive momentum. Meanwhile, the Phillies are no slouches either, boasting the 6th best offense in MLB and ranking 3rd in team batting average, which should make for an exciting contest.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Jacob Misiorowski, who has had an average season with a 4-2 record and a 4.33 ERA. However, his 2.92 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement. Misiorowski’s strikeout projection of 5.4 batters today is average, but he also projects to allow a concerning 3.7 hits and 2.2 walks, which could pose challenges against a potent Phillies lineup.

Taijuan Walker will take the mound for Philadelphia, carrying a 4-7 record and a solid 3.63 ERA. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests he might not be as effective as his ERA indicates, especially given his projections to allow 5.5 hits and 1.9 walks today.

With the Brewers favored at -155, their implied team total of 4.94 runs reflects confidence in their lineup against a pitcher who has struggled at times. This game is crucial for both teams, and with the stakes high, fans can expect an engaging battle at American Family Field.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Taijuan Walker’s 2138-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 17th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  J.T. Realmuto has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  Jacob Misiorowski has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 11.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.7) implies that Christian Yelich has been very fortunate this year with his 29.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 92 games (+32.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 90 games (+17.41 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.90 Units / 169% ROI)