Review Cubs vs Nationals Betting Line and Odds – 8/31/2024

Chicago Cubs

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Washington Nationals

The Chicago Cubs will look to continue their momentum against the Washington Nationals after edging them 7-6 in a thrilling matchup yesterday. This game on August 31, 2024, at Nationals Park is part of a critical series for both teams, although the Nationals are having a below-average season with a record of 61-74, while the Cubs sit at 69-66, marking them as an average contender.

The starting pitchers present an intriguing dynamic. Washington’s DJ Herz, a left-handed pitcher ranked as the 89th best starter in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is coming off a solid performance where he pitched 5 innings with no earned runs and struck out 8 batters. However, Herz has struggled with a 2-6 record and a 3.84 ERA this season, projecting to pitch only 4.5 innings today, which indicates potential vulnerability.

On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with Javier Assad, who has had a decent season with a 6-4 record and an impressive 3.15 ERA. However, his 4.62 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate, indicating a possible regression. Assad’s low strikeout rate (19.7 K%) may be less effective against a Nationals offense that has the 6th fewest strikeouts in MLB.

The projections indicate a tight contest, with the Nationals expected to score around 4.65 runs and the Cubs at 4.89 runs. With both teams struggling in the bullpen—Washington ranking 29th and Chicago 22nd—the offensive depth could very well determine the outcome. The Nationals have shown signs of life, notably their strong base running, ranking 3rd in stolen bases, which could exploit any lapses from the Cubs’ defense. This matchup promises to be a competitive clash as both teams vie for a series win.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Javier Assad’s 2038-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 10th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ian Happ has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cody Bellinger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• DJ Herz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Generating 14.1 outs per GS this year on average, DJ Herz ranks in the 7th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.3) may lead us to conclude that Joey Gallo has been unlucky this year with his 15.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, James Wood, Jose Tena).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+9.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)