Review Betting Odds and Picks for Tigers vs Twins – Thursday, August 14, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Minnesota Twins

On August 14, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Detroit Tigers at Target Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Twins sit at 57-63 this season, struggling to find their footing, while the Tigers, boasting a record of 70-52, are enjoying a solid campaign and are currently positioned among the league’s contenders.

In their most recent outings, the Tigers have showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 9th in MLB, particularly effective with their batting average at 10th. They will look to capitalize on the Twins’ below-average pitching, as Bailey Ober is projected to start for Minnesota. Ober has had an underwhelming season with a 4-7 record and a concerning ERA of 5.16. Despite these struggles, projections suggest he may be due for better results, as indicated by his lower SIERA of 4.62, hinting at some bad luck.

In contrast, Tarik Skubal, the Tigers’ starter, has emerged as the 1st best pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, with an impressive 2.35 ERA and a strong 11-3 record. He projects to deliver another solid performance, striking out an average of 7.3 batters while allowing only 2.0 earned runs. Given his elite status, the Tigers will be counting on him to stifle the Twins’ offense, which ranks 18th overall and has struggled with a low batting average, sitting at 22nd.

The projections indicate a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, reflecting a challenging offensive environment for the Twins. As big underdogs with a moneyline of +170, they face an uphill battle against a strong Tigers team that has an implied total of 4.35 runs. With Ober’s ability to potentially exploit the Tigers’ high strikeout rate, this matchup presents an intriguing narrative for bettors looking for value.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Tarik Skubal’s 2339-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a significant 113-rpm rise from last year’s 2226-rpm rate.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Zach McKinstry has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Austin Martin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Austin Martin’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 87.2-mph mark last year has dropped off to 82.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+140/-185)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.65 Units / 111% ROI)