Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-220
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Miami Marlins on July 25, 2025, they look to capitalize on a strong season, currently holding a record of 61-41. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling at 48-53, entering this matchup as significant underdogs. The Brewers are projected to start Freddy Peralta, who has been a standout performer this year with a 12-4 record and an impressive 2.85 ERA, making him the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Peralta’s last outing featured a solid performance, and he is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings today, projecting to allow just 2.3 earned runs.
On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Cal Quantrill, whose 3-8 record and 5.24 ERA indicate a tough season. Though projections suggest he may perform better today, his average of 4.7 innings pitched and propensity to allow 2.7 earned runs do not inspire much confidence against the Brewers’ lineup, which, despite ranking 18th in offensive power, has demonstrated resilience.
The Brewers’ home field advantage at American Family Field should not be underestimated as they also possess a strong bullpen ranked 11th in MLB. In comparison, the Marlins’ bullpen sits at 20th, which could be a crucial factor in the later innings.
As for betting insights, Milwaukee opens as a sizable favorite with a moneyline of -225, projecting a team total of 4.77 runs, while Miami’s struggles are reflected in their low implied total of 3.23 runs. Given the current form of both teams and the matchup, the Brewers are set up well to take the series opener.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Cal Quantrill’s cut-fastball usage has spiked by 9% from last season to this one (13.4% to 22.4%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Graham Pauley’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 86.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 79.5-mph over the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Miami Marlins have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forwardExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-220)The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the best among all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Andrew Vaughn has been unlucky this year, compiling a .258 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .073 difference.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Milwaukee Brewers bats as a unit grade out 30th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 6.1% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-220)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 63 games (+20.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+185)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+17.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 63% ROI)