Cleveland Guardians
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)+130
As April unfolds, the Los Angeles Angels and the Cleveland Guardians face off in their second game of the series on April 5, 2025, at Angel Stadium. The Guardians secured a victory yesterday, triumphing over the Angels with a score of 8-6, further emphasizing the Angels’ need to bounce back after a tough loss in a tight game.
Currently, the Angels sit at 4-3, enjoying a decent start to the season, especially given their 6th-ranked bullpen. However, their offense has struggled, ranking 53rd overall, a concerning statistic for a team hoping to find its offensive rhythm. Meanwhile, the Guardians, holding a record of 3-4, find themselves in a similar bind, with their offense ranked 29th in MLB. Both teams are in search of consistency, making this matchup critical.
On the mound, the Angels are projected to start Jack Kochanowicz. Despite being ranked 210th among starting pitchers in MLB, his ERA stands at an impressive 3.00 this season. Kochanowicz’s peripherals, however, suggest that he may not sustain this success, particularly with a 3.94 xFIP. He is projected for an average outing today, anticipating 5.4 innings pitched with 2.7 earned runs allowed.
Tanner Bibee, on the other hand, gets the nod for the Guardians. Ranked 42nd among starting pitchers, he boasts a perfect 0.00 ERA in his only start this season. Yet, his 6.06 xFIP raises some eyebrows, indicating he has benefited from some luck so far. Bibee’s ability to strike out hitters is evident with an average of 5.9 strikeouts projected.
Offensively, the Angels are banking on their best hitter, who is currently exhibiting strong form with a .600 batting average over the last week. Conversely, the Guardians’ top performer has also been hot, boasting a .471 average in that same span. As both teams vie for momentum, this game presents a crucial chance for the Angels to capitalize on their home field and halt the Guardians’ early-season momentum.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Bo Naylor has big-time HR ability (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jack Kochanowicz doesn’t generate many whiffs (19th percentile K%) — great news for Naylor.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)With 8 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jack Kochanowicz will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+560/-1000)Luis Rengifo’s footspeed has dropped off this season. His 26.88 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 23.57 ft/sec now.Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, Kyren Paris, Jo Adell).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 103 games (+6.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 28% ROI)