Review Betting Odds and Picks for Dodgers vs Cardinals – Saturday, May 2, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Roki Sasaki’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2187 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2133 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Dalton Rushing – Over/Under Total Bases
  Dalton Rushing has big-time HR ability (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy is a pitch-to-contact type (14th percentile K%) — great news for Rushing.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Teoscar Hernandez, Dalton Rushing, Alex Freeland).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael McGreevy to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (4th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Pedro Pages’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85.3-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 79.8-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals batters collectively place 10th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 31.9% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100+ mph.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.15 Units / 54% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.70 Units / 242% ROI)