Review Betting Odds and Picks for Dodgers vs Cardinals - Saturday, May 2, 2026

-135O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+115

Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Roki Sasaki’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2187 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2133 rpm).
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
In the last two weeks, Andy Pages’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-135)
The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense profiles as the best on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael McGreevy to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (6th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.6-mph mark last year has fallen to 84.4-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
St. Louis Cardinals batters collectively place 10th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 31.9% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100+ mph.
Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+115)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.15 Units / 54% ROI)
Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
Nolan Gorman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.70 Units / 267% ROI)

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