Review Betting Odds and Picks for Dodgers vs Braves – Saturday, May 3, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 3, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this crucial matchup. The Dodgers won the first game of the series 2-1, while the Braves are struggling with a record of 14-17 this season, indicating they are having a below-average year. In contrast, the Dodgers are thriving with a 22-10 record, showcasing their status as one of the top teams in the league.

On the mound, the Braves will send out Spencer Schwellenbach, who is currently ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Schwellenbach has had a solid start to the season with a 2.87 ERA, though his 3.68 xERA suggests he might be due for some regression. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs, though his tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 1.5 walks will be a point of concern against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB offensively.

Roki Sasaki takes the mound for Los Angeles, and while he is a good pitcher, ranked 46th, he has struggled with a 3.55 ERA and an alarming 5.25 xFIP, indicating he may also be overperforming. Sasaki’s projections are less favorable, as he is expected to pitch only 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th overall but have been inconsistent, particularly with their power numbers. Meanwhile, the Dodgers boast the 3rd best offense, highlighted by their 2nd place rank in home runs. With the Braves’ implied team total set at 4.40 runs, it appears the betting market believes they have a chance to keep this game close, especially given Schwellenbach’s potential to limit the damage against a team that thrives on hitting home runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Roki Sasaki – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Roki Sasaki has averaged 12.7 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 9th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95-mph to 98.4-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (43.8 vs. 35.9% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  When it comes to his home runs, Sean Murphy has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 30.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.5.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Sean Murphy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)