Reds vs Royals Game Highlights – Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds face off at Kauffman Stadium on May 28, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their recent performances. The Reds triumphed over the Royals yesterday, winning decisively by a score of 7-2. The Royals currently sit at 29-27, showing an above-average season, while the Reds are at an even 28-28, marking an average campaign.

On the mound, the Royals are set to start Noah Cameron, who has been a bit of a mixed bag this season. Despite boasting an impressive ERA of 0.93, advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky, as his xFIP sits at 4.18, indicating potential regression. Cameron’s low strikeout rate could be a concern when facing a Reds offense that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. However, the Reds’ high-strikeout nature may give Cameron a chance to exploit their weaknesses.

On the other side, Hunter Greene, projected to start for Cincinnati, has been stellar this season, ranking 20th among MLB starters. His 2.54 ERA reflects his skill, although he too may experience some regression as his xFIP is slightly elevated at 3.15. Greene’s high fly-ball rate could play into the Royals’ hands, as they rank dead last in the league for home runs, making it harder for the Reds to capitalize on any fly balls.

With the Royals’ offense ranking 26th overall, they must find a way to generate more run support for Cameron. The betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Royals at +100 and the Reds at -120. This matchup is critical for both teams as they seek to improve their standings in the league.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Matt McLain is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Noah Cameron has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed hitters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Salvador Perez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 94.6-mph EV last year has decreased to 90.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Kansas City Royals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Drew Waters, John Rave, Dairon Blanco).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 30 games (+15.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 38% ROI)