Reds vs Pirates Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 8/10/2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on August 10, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging season with a record of 51-67. The Reds, meanwhile, are in better shape at 61-57 and looking to solidify their position as they continue their push for contention. This matchup marks the fourth game in their series, and the stakes are high, particularly for the Pirates, who are hoping to turn around their fortunes after a disappointing stretch.

In their previous game, the Reds emerged victorious, further establishing their dominance over the Pirates in this series. Michael Burrows is projected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, but he has struggled this season, holding a 1-4 record with an ERA of 4.45. He has only averaged 4.5 innings per start, and his projection suggests he may struggle against a Reds lineup that has been relatively consistent this season. Burrows’s projected performance indicates he could allow 2.2 earned runs while striking out just 4.5 batters on average, which bodes poorly given the Pirates’ 30th-ranked offense.

On the other side, Zack Littell is slated to pitch for Cincinnati. With a solid 9-8 record and an impressive ERA of 3.46, Littell has proven to be a reliable option. Although his projections show he may allow 2.8 earned runs, his ability to minimize damage could give the Reds the edge they need. Littell’s matchup against a Pirates offense that ranks 30th in home runs and 28th in batting average suggests he may find success.

The Pirates’ offense struggles mightily, especially when facing a low-strikeout pitcher like Littell. With the game total set at an average 8.0 runs and both teams’ moneylines currently at -110, the betting markets reflect a competitive atmosphere. While both teams have been struggling at times, the Reds appear more poised to capitalize on the Pirates’ weaknesses in this crucial matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Zack Littell’s 2012-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 6th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under Hits
  Miguel Andujar is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Mike Burrows has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -15.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Tommy Pham has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 94.6-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.