Reds vs Pirates Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 8/10/2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds on August 10, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup in the National League Central. The Reds currently sit above .500 with a record of 61-57, while the Pirates are struggling at 51-67. In their last meeting, the Pirates fell to the Reds by a narrow 2-1 margin, marking the third consecutive loss for Pittsburgh, further emphasizing their difficulties this season.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Michael Burrows, who has had a tough year with a 1-4 record and an average ERA of 4.45. His last outing was particularly rough, allowing 6 earned runs over just 5 innings. The projections suggest he might struggle again today, as he is expected to pitch only 4.7 innings, allowing an above-average 2.1 earned runs while walking an alarming 1.3 batters per game.

In contrast, the Reds will send Zack Littell to the hill. Though he is also considered below average, Littell has a better record at 9-8 with a strong ERA of 3.46. His last start was impressive, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run and 8 strikeouts. Projections indicate he should pitch around 5.4 innings today, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 30th in MLB, struggling significantly with a .228 batting average and a meager number of home runs. Meanwhile, the Reds, while not elite, hold a middle-of-the-pack ranking at 20th, which gives them the edge in this matchup. Given the disparity in offensive production and starting pitching performance, the Reds appear poised for another victory against the struggling Pirates. The current game total is set at an average 8.0 runs, suggesting a close contest but one that may favor Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Zack Littell’s 2012-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 6th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Miguel Andujar is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 15.9° angle is among the highest in the majors this year (#4 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Mike Burrows has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -15.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 84.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 79.1-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates batters as a group place 8th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 70 games (+19.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 114 games (+27.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)