Reds vs Mariners Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/20/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Seattle Mariners

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Andrew Abbott has averaged 92.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under Hits
  Dane Myers is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  George Kirby will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Colt Emerson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Colt Emerson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 69.8-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• George Kirby – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 away games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115/-115)
  Andrew Abbott has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 54% ROI)