Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Guardians
(-120/+100)+105
As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on June 11, 2025, it’s a critical matchup for both teams, especially after the Guardians suffered a narrow 1-0 loss to the Reds yesterday. The Guardians currently sit at 34-32, enjoying an above-average season, while the Reds are just slightly ahead at 35-33, performing at an average level. This Interleague matchup is the third game of the series, adding an extra layer of intensity.
The Guardians are projected to start Logan Allen, who has had a challenging season so far, ranking as the 286th best starting pitcher in the league. His ERA of 4.42 is considered average, but his 5.08 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year. In his last start on June 6, Allen allowed four earned runs over six innings, which did little to boost his confidence. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings today, but with anticipated struggles—averaging 3.0 earned runs and a concerning 5.7 hits allowed.
On the other hand, the Reds will counter with Nick Lodolo, who is having a standout season, ranking 86th among starters with a strong ERA of 3.21. Lodolo has been effective in his last outing, pitching six innings without allowing a run on May 31. The projections indicate he will likely allow 2.5 earned runs today while striking out around 5.6 batters.
Offensively, the Guardians rank just 25th in MLB, which casts doubt on their ability to support Allen. In contrast, the Reds boast a more potent offense, ranked 12th overall, and their best hitter is currently on a hot streak, boasting a .381 batting average over the past week.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Nick Lodolo’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (51.1% compared to 43.7% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Bats such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Allen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Today, Matt McLain is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (94th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Logan Allen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Logan Allen’s 89.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.3-mph drop off from last season’s 91.2-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Lane Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 7.4% rate last season has decreased to 0% this year.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Cleveland Guardians have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones, Johnathan Rodriguez, Dom Nunez).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 85% ROI)