Reds vs D-Backs Betting Guide and Expert Picks August 24th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On August 24, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Cincinnati Reds at Chase Field for the third game of their series. Both teams are positioned in the middle of the standings, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 64-66, while the Reds hold a slightly better record at 67-63. The Diamondbacks have showcased an impressive offense this season, ranking 4th in MLB, with a solid .261 team batting average and 6th in home runs. However, their bullpen has struggled, currently ranked 29th, which could be a critical factor in today’s matchup.

In their most recent game, the Diamondbacks fell to the Reds, who are looking to build on their above-average season. The Reds have had their share of ups and downs offensively, ranking 17th overall, but they will aim to capitalize on the Diamondbacks’ weaker bullpen.

Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for Arizona, and while his 9-13 record this season reflects a challenging year, his 4.19 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and may perform better moving forward. Gallen’s average projections of 5.7 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed indicate a potential for a solid outing. Conversely, Brady Singer is slated to start for Cincinnati, carrying an 11-9 record and a 4.18 ERA. While he has been more consistent than Gallen, the projections suggest he will face a tough challenge against the Diamondbacks’ potent lineup.

Betting markets view this matchup as competitive, with Arizona favored at -135, reflecting an implied team total of 4.76 runs, while Cincinnati sits at +115 with an average implied total of 4.24 runs. As both teams look to secure a win, the Diamondbacks will rely on their strong offensive capabilities to overcome their pitching struggles and aim for a crucial victory.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starting pitchers, Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate of 2433 rpm grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  TJ Friedl’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.8-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 83.4-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Compared to the average starter, Zac Gallen has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.1 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Despite posting a .366 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Geraldo Perdomo has had positive variance on his side given the .053 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .313.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+15.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 102 games (+23.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 32% ROI)