Reds vs Cardinals Bets and Betting Trends – 9/11/24

Cincinnati Reds

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to take on the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium on September 11, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive National League Central division. The Cardinals sit at .500 with a 72-72 record, while the Reds are struggling slightly at 71-75. Both clubs are hoping to find some momentum, especially after the Reds shut out the Cardinals 3-0 in their last encounter just a day prior.

On the mound, the Cardinals are set to start Lance Lynn, who has had a mixed season thus far. With a 4.06 ERA, he hasn’t been as effective as he would like, and his 4.90 xERA suggests he may have benefitted from some good luck this year. Lynn is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings and allow around 2.4 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits (averaging 5.1 per game) and walks (1.5) could be a concern against a Reds lineup that ranks 14th in home runs.

Brandon Williamson, projected to start for the Reds, has had limited experience with just two starts this year and a stellar 2.25 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.51 indicates he may not be able to maintain that level of performance. He is also expected to struggle with innings, projecting to pitch only 4.3 innings today.

Offensively, the Cardinals have struggled, ranking 20th overall in MLB, but they boast a strong hitter in Paul Goldschmidt. Conversely, the Reds’ offense is only slightly better at 16th, though Elly De La Cruz is having a standout season with 23 home runs and 64 runs.

With both sides showing signs of inconsistency, today’s matchup is expected to be tight, and the projections favor the Cardinals’ chances slightly, suggesting they could edge out a victory at home.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+130)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Luke Maile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Maile in the 7th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Paul Goldschmidt will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Williamson in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 124 games (+11.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+9.05 Units / 20% ROI)