Recommended Player Prop Bets for Rockies vs Mets – Friday July 12, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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New York Mets

The New York Mets are set to host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on July 12, 2024, in the first game of their series. The Mets, with a 47-45 record, are having an average season but come into this game on a high note after shutting out the Nationals 7-0 on July 11. The Rockies, on the other hand, have struggled mightily this season, sitting at 33-61, and are coming off a lopsided 8-1 loss to the Reds.

The Mets will send Sean Manaea to the mound. Manaea, a left-handed pitcher, has been solid this season with a 3.43 ERA and a 5-3 record over 17 starts. However, his 4.36 xFIP suggests he might have been somewhat fortunate and could regress. In his last outing on July 7, Manaea pitched a gem, going 6 innings without allowing an earned run and striking out six. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Manaea to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.8 batters on average today.

The Rockies will counter with right-hander Tanner Gordon, who has had a rough start to his season, posting a 7.11 ERA in his lone start. However, his 3.53 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and might improve. Gordon’s last start on July 7 was a tough one, as he allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits over 6 innings. The projections have him pitching 5.0 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters.

Offensively, the Mets hold a significant advantage. They rank 9th in MLB in overall offense, 10th in team batting average, and 4th in home runs. The Rockies, conversely, rank 20th in overall offense and 23rd in home runs. Francisco Lindor has been the Mets’ best hitter this season, while Brenton Doyle has been a bright spot for the Rockies.

With the Mets being massive betting favorites at -275 and an implied win probability of 71%, and the Rockies as +235 underdogs, the odds heavily favor New York. THE BAT X projects the Mets to score 4.96 runs on average, while the Rockies are projected to score 3.61 runs. Expect the Mets to continue their winning ways against a struggling Rockies team.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-180)
  Tallying 80.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Tanner Gordon checks in at the 16th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 90.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Sean Manaea has utilized his sinker 34.2% more often this season (34.9%) than he did last year (0.7%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Colorado’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jose Iglesias, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 33 away games (+5.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-270)
  J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)