Recommended Player Prop Bets for Orioles vs Cubs – Saturday August 02, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Chicago Cubs

On August 2, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Baltimore Orioles at Wrigley Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Cubs, currently sitting at 64-45, are enjoying a strong season and have the 3rd best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Orioles are struggling at 50-60, ranking 16th in offense and showing signs of inconsistency.

In their last matchup, the Cubs edged out the Orioles in a nail-biting 1-0 victory, showcasing their pitching prowess and defensive strength. The Cubs will send Matthew Boyd to the mound, who, despite a rough outing on July 28 where he allowed 5 earned runs, boasts a solid 11-4 record and an impressive 2.47 ERA this season. His advanced metrics indicate he’s been a bit lucky, with a higher xFIP of 3.93, suggesting some regression might be on the horizon. Boyd projects to average 5.3 innings with only 1.8 earned runs allowed today, which could be pivotal against an Orioles lineup that has struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

On the other hand, Tomoyuki Sugano will take the hill for Baltimore. Although he has a respectable 8-5 record, his 4.38 ERA and 5.20 FIP indicate that he’s been less effective than his record suggests. With a low strikeout rate of 15.2%, Sugano may have difficulty against a Cubs offense that ranks 5th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

The Cubs enter this matchup as heavy favorites, with a current moneyline of -210 and an implied team total of 4.40 runs. In contrast, the Orioles are underdogs at +180, with a low implied total of 3.10 runs. Given the Cubs’ offensive firepower and Boyd’s solid season, they appear well-positioned to secure another victory in this series.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tomoyuki Sugano must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary pitches a lot this year: 68.1% of the time, ranking in the 96th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Coby Mayo is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-230)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Seiya Suzuki has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  In today’s matchup, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.5% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+12.48 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-20000)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)