Read Twins vs Royals Picks and Betting Odds – Friday September 05, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on September 5, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of average to poor seasons, with the Royals holding a record of 71-69 and the Twins at 62-78. This matchup, the first in the series, carries weight as the teams look to gain an edge in the American League Central.

In their previous outings, the Royals edged out the Twins, winning 4-3, while Minnesota recently suffered an 11-8 loss. The Royals will send Michael Wacha to the mound, who, despite an unimpressive 8-11 record this season, ranks as the 71st best starting pitcher according to advanced-stats Power Rankings, indicating he’s performed above average overall. However, Wacha’s 4.48 xFIP suggests he may face challenges ahead, with projections indicating he will pitch around 5.3 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs on average.

Opposing him will be Pablo Lopez, who has been the more effective arm for Minnesota, boasting a 5-3 record and an excellent ERA of 2.82. Lopez, ranked 39th among starting pitchers, projects to pitch slightly longer, with an average of 5.8 innings, but is likely to allow more earned runs (2.6) and has struggled with walks this season, only enhancing the Royals’ chances to capitalize.

Offensively, the Royals rank 24th in the league, with their best hitter managing a solid 0.295 batting average and 21 home runs, but their overall power numbers fall short. Meanwhile, the Twins have their own issues, ranking 19th overall, but their best hitter has been performing well recently, boasting an OPS of 1.245 over the last week.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, and the Royals holding a slight edge in odds at -135, this contest is expected to be tightly contested, making it essential for both teams to seize opportunities early.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Pablo Lopez’s 93.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.1-mph fall off from last season’s 95-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Byron Buxton has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 92-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 17 outs per game per started this year on average, Michael Wacha places him the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  In terms of his batting average, Jac Caglianone has had some very poor luck this year. His .145 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .260.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Kansas City Royals (19.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 72 games at home (+26.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 away games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI)