Read the Mets vs Pirates Prediction and Game Breakdown – June 28th, 2025

New York Mets

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The New York Mets will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 28, 2025, at PNC Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Mets are currently in the thick of the playoff race with a solid record of 48-35, while the Pirates are struggling significantly at 33-50 this season. In their last game, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess, defeating the Pirates 9-3, a result that highlighted the stark contrast in performance between the two teams.

Bailey Falter is projected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, and while his ERA stands at a respectable 3.59, his xFIP of 4.85 suggests he may have been fortunate this season. Falter’s high flyball rate (39% FB) could be a concern against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 6th in MLB with 108 home runs this year. On the other hand, Paul Blackburn, the Mets’ starter, has struggled, with a 6.62 ERA in his three starts, but the projections suggest he may improve given his lower xFIP of 4.96.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 29th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Mets boast the 6th best offense, showcasing their ability to hit for power and generate runs effectively. The Pirates’ recent offensive woes are compounded by their poor ranking in home runs (30th), making them a tough bet in this matchup.

With the Mets favored to win and a high game total of 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Mets’ strong lineup against a struggling Pirates team. The projections indicate the Mets could score around 4.89 runs, while the Pirates are expected to muster only 4.11 runs, further solidifying the Mets’ status as the team to watch in this contest.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a sizeable edge over flyball bats, Paul Blackburn and his 45.7% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s game matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Luis Torrens has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 15.9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  In today’s matchup, Brandon Nimmo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.1% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Bailey Falter’s change-up utilization has spiked by 7.3% from last year to this one (0.6% to 7.9%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 80.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh has performed as the #4 squad in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle span that tends to result the most in base hits (45.8% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)