Read the Mets vs Pirates Prediction and Game Breakdown – June 28th, 2025

New York Mets

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the New York Mets at PNC Park on June 28, 2025, for the second game of their series. The Pirates, currently sitting at 33-50, are struggling this season, while the Mets boast a strong 48-35 record. In their last matchup, the Pirates snapped a losing streak with an impressive 9-1 victory, while the Mets faced a similar scoreline in defeat.

Bailey Falter is projected to take the mound for the Pirates. Despite ranking as the 223rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, his 3.59 ERA suggests he has had some luck this season. However, he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.5 per game, and projects to allow 3.1 earned runs over 4.9 innings. Falter’s high flyball rate could spell trouble against a Mets lineup that ranks 6th in MLB with 108 home runs this season.

On the other side, Paul Blackburn will start for the Mets. Though he has a disappointing 6.62 ERA, his 4.95 xFIP indicates he may be due for a rebound. Blackburn’s ability to keep the ball on the ground could be beneficial against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in overall production and 30th in home runs.

The Pirates’ best hitter has been heating up, posting a .533 batting average over the last week, while the Mets’ top player has also been on fire, recording six home runs in that span. The current game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. Despite the Pirates being underdogs with a moneyline of +120, the projections suggest they may have the potential to exceed their implied team total of 4.43 runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a sizeable edge over flyball bats, Paul Blackburn and his 45.7% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s game matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Starling Marte is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  In today’s matchup, Brandon Nimmo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Bailey Falter’s change-up utilization has spiked by 7.3% from last year to this one (0.6% to 7.9%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 80.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh has performed as the #4 squad in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle span that tends to result the most in base hits (45.8% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)